It may be postponed for now, but what happens to the Treasury market if and when the next COVID-19 bailout bill passes? If President Trump is reelected, it will likely go through in November. If Joe Biden wins, then we could have an even bigger bailout in January when he takes power.
Mark Cabana, head of US Rates Strategy at Bank of America, as quoted by Zero Hedge, believes that if and when it happens, issuance at the long end of the curve will be increased. He’s right. The question I’ll deal with here is, by how much?
Here I’ll bring you through the math precisely, step by step, and show why the answer is between three and six times the issuance rate of the past six years. The exact rate depends on how fast the Treasury needs to raise the money, and that depends on how fast Congress proposes