Put simply, a viscous combination of tax loss harvesting and profit-taking in winning names ahead of a potentially higher capital gains tax rate could put overwhelming pressure on U.S. stocks just one more time this year.
This year saw a 34% bear market induced by the coronavirus recession, a second bear market for oil and banks in June and a tech-driven 9% down-move on the S&P 500 in September.
Hang onto the roof, investors.
Tax loss harvesting could be pronounced at year end and the tax headwinds do not stop there. For the winners in this market — and there have been some big ones — investors may aggressively take some chips off the table if former Vice President Joe Biden is elected President. He would attempt to raise the capital gains tax for those earning more than $1 million a year from 20% to 37%.
There are some caveats