The analysis concludes Biden’s plan would raise $2.8 trillion over the next decade from higher taxes on businesses, corporations and the wealthiest households. Over that time, AEI projects the higher taxes would reduce economic growth by a relatively modest 0.16 percent.
The plan would “make the tax code more progressive,” AEI’s Kyle Pomerlau and Grant Seiter write. And after slightly crimping growth in its first decade, it would “reduce debt-to-GDP in the second decade, leading to slightly higher GDP. However, in the long term, his plan would not raise enough to stabilize debt-to-GDP and would lead to a 0.18 percent smaller economy.”
The macroeconomic drag the AEI model anticipates roughly aligns with other analyses from the Tax Foundation and the Penn Wharton Budget Model, Pomerlau notes. In other words, rolling back most of the Trump tax cuts wouldn’t bring about the economic Armageddon the Trump campaign has depicted.