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Here’s how money managers can influence what happens to stocks in this hard hit, unloved sector

October 13, 2020

OUTSIDE THE BOX

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A long-awaited stock-market rotation back to value stocks might benefit oil and gas companies in the short-term, but long-term there are concerns about the sustainability of the energy industry as it now exists. The sector’s woes are such that at the end of August 2020, energy stocks accounted for just 2.6% of the S&P 500 (SPX) , down from more than 16% in 2008.

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The systemic risk surrounding energy companies due to climate change underscores the difference in approach between active managers and their index-fund counterparts and large retirement funds, as well as the tools active managers can use to make a persuasive case for meaningful change. While active fund managers increasingly are avoiding the energy sector and its risk of permanent capital impairment, many passive-fund investors recognize that as universal owners of the market and, by default, the economy, they have

Irish budget deficit set to hit 6% of GDP this year -finance minister

October 9, 2020

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By Padraic Halpin

DUBLIN, Oct 9 (Reuters) – Ireland’s budget deficit is set to hit 6.1% of gross domestic product this year, Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe said on Friday, a narrower than forecast shortfall likely to give him room for more generous measures in Tuesday’s budget.

The government will look to support those hit hardest by COVID-19 restrictions in the budget for 2021, helped by state tax revenues having held up much better than expected and Ireland’s big export sector limiting the economic damage.

The finance ministry estimated early in the pandemic that a big fall in tax receipts and a huge increase in spending could lead to a deficit of 23 to 30 billion euros or between 7.4% to 10% of GDP.

Donohoe said the deficit would reach 21 billion euros, provided current COVID-19 restrictions were not tightened. A no-policy-change estimated deficit of 14 billion euros or 4%

UK bolsters salary support for those hit by local lockdowns

October 9, 2020

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LONDON (AP) — The British government said Friday it will pay two thirds of the salaries of workers in companies that have to close as a result of new coronavirus restrictions widely expected to come into effect next week.

In a change of policy, Treasury chief Rishi Sunak has responded to calls from businesses, local leaders and unions to provide a financial support package to prevent mass job losses in sectors that will be subject to new restrictions.

Pubs and restaurants in large parts of the north of England, where the coronavirus is spreading fastest, are expected to face a government order to shut their doors again – barely three months after reopening. Restrictions are already being tightened Friday in Scotland, where pubs in the two biggest cities, Glasgow and Edinburgh, have to close for 16 days.

“I have always said that we will do whatever is necessary to protect

5 Gold Stocks to Buy as Gold ETF Inflows Hit Record Levels

October 9, 2020

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Global gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETF) recorded 10 consecutive months of net inflows during September — the third time this feat has been achieved since the Financial Crisis. Notably, the last two times there have been instances of 10 straight months of inflows were in the period spanning June 2007-March 2008 and January 2016-October 2016. In the first nine-month period of 2020, global net inflows of Gold ETFs were at 1,003 tons ($55.7 billion) per the World Gold Council, surpassing the previous record of 646 tons achieved in 2009.

Notably, Gold ETF net inflows have crossed the 1,000 tons mark for the first time ever. Global gold ETF holdings have peaked to an all-time high of 3,880 tons, as of September end. The pandemic and its devastating impact on the global economy have influenced investor’s risk appetite and boosted safe haven demand for gold this year.

Over the January-September timeframe, SPDR

Sterling shrugs off GDP hit as Brexit and dollar weakness dominate

October 9, 2020

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By Elizabeth Howcroft

LONDON, Oct 9 (Reuters) – The pound was steady against the U.S. dollar on Friday, brushing off worse than expected UK growth data as investors became more optimistic about a Brexit deal being reached ahead of a key European Council summit next week.

The pound has been volatile this week on contradictory headlines about how much progress has been made in Brexit negotiations. Both sides have said a deal is still possible.

“The last two weeks have seen some brutal whipsawed price action in sterling,” said Jeremy Stretch, head of G10 FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets,

“There is going to be that ongoing susceptibility to Brexit headlines but the mood music still seems to be reasonably positive,” he said, adding sterling could test the key $1.30 level again if the risk environment remained constructive.

At 1034 GMT, the pound was at $1.2937, little changed on

PepsiCo Will Quench Your Thirst: Stock To Hit $150

October 9, 2020

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Despite more than a 30% rise since the March lows of this year, at the current price of $136 per share, we believe PepsiCo stock (NASDAQ: PEP) is still a good opportunity for investors. PEP stock has increased from $104 to $135 off the recent bottom, less than the S&P which increased by 50% from its recent lows. Even though the stock is around 23% above the level at which it was at the end of 2017, it is still lower than its pre-Covid (February 2020) high of $147. We believe that PEPâs stock could rise over 10% from its current level, driven by expectations of rising demand and easing of supply constraints following the gradual lifting of lockdowns and benefits from recent acquisitions. Our dashboard What Factors Drove 23% Change In PepsiCo Stock Between 2017 And Now? has the underlying numbers behind our thinking.

Some of the sharp stock

Deficit hit record-shattering $3.1T in 2020: CBO

October 8, 2020

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The federal deficit for 2020 is believed to have hit a record-smashing $3.1 trillion in 2020, well over double the highest deficit on record, according to an estimate by the Congressional Budget Office released Thursday.

The official figures from the Treasury Department are expected later this month.

Even before the pandemic, the deficit was on track to exceed $1 trillion for the only time since the four-year period following the Great Recession. The fiscal response to that economic downturn led to the previous record deficit of $1.4 trillion in 2009, but that number steadily declined until the mid-2010s.

Since President TrumpDonald John TrumpFive takeaways from the vice presidential debate Harris accuses Trump of promoting voter suppression Pence targets Biden over ISIS hostages, brings family of executed aid worker to debate MORE took office, the deficit has grown dramatically on the back of unfunded tax cuts and increased spending on

British midcaps hit near 2-month high on upbeat Brexit views

October 8, 2020

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By Shashank Nayar

Oct 8 (Reuters) – British midcaps rose to their highest levels in nearly two months on Thursday following the Bank of England Governor’s upbeat views on Brexit and as a slew of corporate results showed signs of an improvement.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said he believed Britain and the European Union should be able to reach a trade deal, and that he did not expect the new wave of COVID-19 cases to be as damaging as the first.

Capping the market’s gains, however, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government said it is considering additional local COVID-19 restrictions for parts of northern England as the second wave of the novel coronavirus accelerates.

The mid-cap index .FTMC, considered a barometer for Brexit sentiment, gained 0.5%. Electrocomponent ECM.L was one of the biggest boosts after it said it expects the virus’ impact to ease in the second

UK house prices jump 7.3% as mortgage applications hit 12-year high

October 7, 2020

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Britain's housing boom continues despite the coronavirus pandemic. Photo: Toby Melville/Reuters — Britain’s housing boom continues despite the coronavirus pandemic. Photo: Toby Melville/Reuters

Property prices leapt 7.3% year-on-year last month as Britain’s housing market boom continues, with lender Halifax reporting mortgage applications at a 12-year high.

Figures from the bank show the average residential home sold for £249,870 ($322,877) in September, with the highest annual rise since 2016.

Russell Galley, managing director of Halifax, noted political uncertainty had weighed on prices last September, but said the market had still been “extremely strong” since the first national lockdown eased.

Prices were up 1.6% on the previous month in a third month in a row of gains. Growth has lost less steam than expected by analysts, who had predicted monthly growth of 0.6%.

It comes in spite of the resurgent coronavirus, tighter lockdown restrictions and the ongoing economic crisis, with some experts calling the property boom a “paradox.”

READ MORE: Generation Buy: What low-deposit

U.K. Taxpayers’ Pandemic-Loan Losses Could Hit 80% in Worst Case

October 7, 2020

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(Bloomberg) — Amid a punishing recession, defaults and fraud, U.K. taxpayers might face losses of 80% from the coronavirus lending program supporting small business.

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In the most detailed assessment to date of Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s Bounce Back Loan Scheme, the National Audit Office said Wednesday that the worst-case loss estimate had increased from 60%, stoked by the potential for the Covid-19 crisis to last longer and take a greater toll on the economy.

The state watchdog compiled figures from various arms of the U.K. government and assumed smaller businesses will have borrowed about 43 billion pounds ($56 billion) — the midpoint of a range of estimates — through the program by its Nov. 30 deadline. An 80% loss, accounting for both defaults and fraud, on those loans — made overwhelmingly through Britain’s Big Five banks — would equal 34 billion pounds, or about $44 billion.