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Tag: OutYear

Conagra Brands: Balancing Near-Term Upside Against Out-Year Growth Challenges (NYSE:CAG)

October 8, 2020
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Despite a relatively strong set of FQ1 numbers, I am concerned about the Conagra (NYSE:CAG) outlook on several fronts. Firstly, there will be some tough comparisons ahead as consumers eventually regain mobility, and the food at home tailwind fades. Secondly, I see the company’s low level of advertising reinvestment is negative for the future earnings outlook, especially with competitors stepping up investments in longer-term brand equity. At the current multiple, I don’t think CAG shares offer much in the way of long-term value.

Strong FQ1 Results Benefit from Packaged Food Tailwinds

CAG posted a better-than-expected set of FQ1 results, with EPS of $0.70 on the back of better-than-expected organic sales (+15.0%), significant gross margin expansion of c. 244 bps, and opex leverage.

Source: Conagra FQ1 Presentation Slides

The key to the quarter was continued demand for packaged foods through the pandemic, with retailer inventory restocking also providing a c. 600

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