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Tag: Shorts

Record Shorts Show New Bets on Steeper Treasury Yield Curve

October 5, 2020
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(Bloomberg) — Fast-money wagers against longer-dated Treasuries have hit a record in a sign hedge funds are positioning themselves ever more aggressively for a steeper yield curve.

Net short speculative positions in long bond futures saw the biggest weekly climb since 2007 to reach around 209,000 contracts, according to the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Meanwhile, net long positions on 10-year Treasuries have risen to their highest since October 2017.

So-called steepener trades are often seen as bets on reflation, while investors are also positioning for the possibility of greater deficits should the Democratic party prevail in November’s election. A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll taken after Tuesday’s debate showed Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 14 percentage points. It was taken before the president was diagnosed with coronavirus.



chart: Speculators long bond positions at record net-short as 10-year yields bets climb


© Bloomberg
Speculators long bond positions at record net-short as 10-year yields bets climb

The surge in shorts appears

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Long-Dated Shorts On UVXY Tend To Be Winning Trades (NYSEARCA:UVXY)

September 30, 2020
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As you can see in the following chart, the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) has continued downwards during the month with shares erasing most of the gains seen earlier this summer.

At present, I have two different views on UVXY. In the short term, I believe that we’re likely going to see some upside in the instrument in line with seasonal tendencies in the VIX. In the long term, however, I believe that we are almost certainly going to see UVXY head lower.

VIX Markets

To kick this piece off, let’s take a broad thematic look at the current VIX levels.

The VIX is sitting around 27 at the time of writing. Over the past month, we have seen a fair degree of volatility in the VIX with the index hitting as high as 38 early September after touching numbers in the low 20s a few days prior.

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