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Tag: Technically

The Markets End The Week In Good Shape (Technically Speaking For The Week Of 10/5-10/9)

October 9, 2020
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My Friday column is divided into two sections. The first uses the long-leading, leading, and coincidental format developed by Arthur Burns and Geoffrey Moore to determine the current economic trajectory. The second looks at the markets.

Long-Leading Indicators

Financially, the economy is in good shape:

The Fed has been pumping cash into the economy (left). The Fed’s credit market support programs have lowered financial stress; the BBB yield (right) has dropped to 5-year lows.

The earnings picture is improving — but remember that word is clearly relative (emphasis added):

The expectation is for total S&P 500 earnings to decline -22.8% from the same period last year on -2.9% lower revenues. This would follow the -32.3% decline in Q2 when economic and business activities came to a halt as a result of the pandemic-driven lockdowns.

The earnings outlook has been steadily improving since the start of Q3, as economic and business

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Posted in %1$s Tagged %1$s

Despite Breaking Out, The Markets Are Still Nervous (Technically Speaking For 9/28-10/2)

October 2, 2020
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My Friday column is divided into two sections. The first uses the long-leading, leading, and coincidental indicator method developed by Arthur Burns and Geoffrey Moore. The second looks at the large equity index ETFs.

There are a large number of credit market numbers in the long-leading and leading indicators and with good reason: credit market problems typically pre-date an economic downturn. Thankfully, the Federal Reserve’s early and aggressive intervention calmed the credit market, which lowered yields across the board.

The yield on all manner of credit rose sharply at the beginning of the recession. But all are now lower. AAA (upper left) and BBB (upper right) are now near 5-year lows. CCC (lower left) rose to just shy of 20% but are now back to the 12.5% level.The shorter-end of the corporate yield curve (1-10 year yields; left) and longer-end (10+ years; right) all spiked at the beginning of

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Posted in %1$s Tagged %1$s

Cross-Currents Are Keeping Traders In Check For Now (Technically Speaking For 9/30)

September 30, 2020
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The ADP jobs report was strong (emphasis added):

Private sector employment increased by 749,000 jobs from August to September according to the September ADP National Employment Report.

Also from the report:

The best news is that growth is spread over a number of industries.

And, it’s the strongest total in the last three months:

This bodes well for Friday’s jobs report.

Chinese manufacturing is back (emphasis added):

The headline seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index – a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – edged down from 53.1 in August to 53.0 in September, to signal a further solid improvement in the health of the sector. Operating conditions have now strengthened in each of the past five months. Notably, the latest reading rounded off the best quarterly performance since Q4 2010.

Chinese manufacturers recorded a sharp and accelerated increase in total new

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Posted in %1$s Tagged %1$s

The First Phase Of The Pandemic Market Recovery Is Probably Over (Technically Speaking For 9/28)

September 28, 2020
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Let’s start where we usually do on Mondays: last week’s fund flows from ETF.com:

The SPY had a huge outflow of $6.8 billion, more than reversing the inflows from the last two weeks. The IWM (Russell 2000) also lost a large amount of cash. But traders are buying the QQQ’s dip. Finally, there was a large move into the long-bond — a clear safety play.Tech was the big loser, losing $1.35 billion last week. It’s brethren communication services was more fortunate, only seeing a $145 billion outflow. Financials are also losing money. Investors are probably seeing a very poor 3Q20 on the horizon for the banking industry and acting accordingly. Interestingly, consumer staples and health care (two defensive sectors) also had a net outflow. Only four sectors saw inflows. Overall, this is a bearish table.

Is the recovery running out of steam? Last week, a chorus of Federal Reserve

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Posted in %1$s Tagged %1$s

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