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Tag: Upside

The CEO of the world’s largest wealth manager says stocks have more upside ahead and most investors should put more money to work

October 13, 2020
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a man wearing glasses and looking at the camera: Shannon Stapleton/Reuters


© Shannon Stapleton/Reuters
Shannon Stapleton/Reuters

  • BlackRock CEO Larry Fink told CNBC on Tuesday stocks have more upside ahead and most investors should put more money to work in the market.
  • “I believe we still have more to go on the upside even in front of probably rising infection rates with COVID-19,” Fink said. 
  • With interest rates lower for longer and the likelihood of a second fiscal stimulus, Fink expects the market to move higher.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink told CNBC on Tuesday that stocks have more upside ahead and investors should put more money to work in the market. 

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“We have a strong conviction that the average investor still is under-invested and they’re going to have to be putting more and more money to work over the coming months and maybe even years,” Fink said. “I believe we still have more to go on the upside even in

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GBP/CAD: Range Trading Is Likely, Yet GBP Could Surprise To The Upside In 2021

October 10, 2020
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The GBP/CAD currency pair, which expresses the value of the British pound sterling in terms of the Canadian dollar, has managed to continue to fend off long-term lows over the past few years. However, in spite of Brexit (the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union, which was announced on 23 June 2016), GBP/CAD has in fact managed to continue to trade above the lows of 2010 to 2013.

The long-term monthly candlestick chart below illustrates price action from as early as January 1975. Two levels are highlighted: 1.60 and 1.50. GBP has managed to safely avoid the 1.50 handle since the announcement of Brexit, although current prices above the 1.70 handle are still a far cry from the highs above 2.00 in the latter half of 2015 (and early part of 2016).

GBP/CAD Historical Price Action(Source: TradingView. The same applies to all subsequent candlestick charts presented hereafter.)

If we focus

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Commerce Bancshares: Solid Operator But A Rich Valuation Limits Share Price Upside (NASDAQ:CBSH)

October 8, 2020
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Investment Thesis

Based in Kansas City, Missouri, Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (CBSH) is a $30.5 billion asset holding company and parent to Commerce Bank. CBSH has a rich history of lending to the Midwest for more than 150 years. It currently operates a little over 160 branches with serving its local markets located in Colorado, Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas.

To me, CBSH is a bank that you would want to own in the beginning of a recession and but not necessarily today. Since the bank has a solid net interest margin and operating expense base it is typically more profitable than the average peer bank, and because of this has a that valuation is typically higher than peers. As one can see from the chart below, it currently trades at ~2.2x price to tangible book value per share.

While I do think that CBSH has a great mouse-trap, the

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Conagra Brands: Balancing Near-Term Upside Against Out-Year Growth Challenges (NYSE:CAG)

October 8, 2020
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Despite a relatively strong set of FQ1 numbers, I am concerned about the Conagra (NYSE:CAG) outlook on several fronts. Firstly, there will be some tough comparisons ahead as consumers eventually regain mobility, and the food at home tailwind fades. Secondly, I see the company’s low level of advertising reinvestment is negative for the future earnings outlook, especially with competitors stepping up investments in longer-term brand equity. At the current multiple, I don’t think CAG shares offer much in the way of long-term value.

Strong FQ1 Results Benefit from Packaged Food Tailwinds

CAG posted a better-than-expected set of FQ1 results, with EPS of $0.70 on the back of better-than-expected organic sales (+15.0%), significant gross margin expansion of c. 244 bps, and opex leverage.

Source: Conagra FQ1 Presentation Slides

The key to the quarter was continued demand for packaged foods through the pandemic, with retailer inventory restocking also providing a c. 600

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Lululemon could resume its rally. Trader lays out way to catch upside

October 2, 2020
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Onetime high flyer Lululemon has run into trouble over the past month.

The stock has fallen 17% from a Sept. 2 high with losses accelerating even after an earnings report that topped analysts’ estimates. The stock remains more than 40% higher for the year.

Todd Gordon, founder of TradingAnalysis.com, says strong demand should help Lululemon recapture upside momentum.

“Lulu is well positioned to benefit from the work-from-home, stay-at-home environment. Comfort clothes are really, I think, second to none … But I also think they’ll benefit if and when the work-from-home, stay-at-home environment ends, because gyms and yoga classes will open back up and the demand will stay strong,” Gordon told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Thursday.

He sees strength on three fronts: e-commerce, international expansion and its acquisition of Mirror, a augmented reality interactive fitness company.

“They’re looking to grow at a compound rate of 40% per year in China and

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Glacier Bancorp: Revenue Headwinds Likely Put A Lid On Any Share Price Upside (NASDAQ:GBCI)

October 2, 2020
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Investment Thesis

Headquartered in Kalispell, Montana, Glacier Bancorp, Inc. (GBCI) is a $14 billion regional bank holding company and parent to Glacier Bank. GBCI provides commercial banking services to communities throughout Montana, Idaho, Utah, Washington, Wyoming, Arizona, and Colorado.

About 5 years ago, GBCI’s management team decided to clean out most problem assets (which took about two years to complete) and instituted a more disciplined credit culture which limited concentrations in oversupplied or higher credit risk areas.

Today, the loan book is very granular and GBCI’s markets may actually benefit from people fleeing cities for more space and a cheaper cost of living as remote work becomes more normal. GBCI has a robust loan loss reserve and very high capital levels, allowing them flexibility to weather any challenges that may arise.

With respect to GBCI relative to community bank peers, GBCI’s earnings should prove more stable due to greater net

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5 Best ETFs of Q3 With Room for Further Upside

September 30, 2020
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Wall Street’s performance has been strong in the third quarter despite the recent market rout. Though the major U.S. stock indices logged in four consecutive weeks of losses, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index are on track for their best two-quarter winning streaks since 2009 and 2000, respectively.

Positive development surrounding COVID-19 vaccine and continued support from the Federal Reserve boosted the market. The encouraging data indicating that the U.S. economy is gradually returning to the pre-pandemic level also added to the strength. Additionally, renewed hopes for further stimulus coupled with bouts of upbeat economic data lifted investors’ sentiment. U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi indicated that the talks for the long stalled stimulus package of $2.2 trillion coronavirus relief bill have been continuing and it might come before November elections (read: Trump vs. Biden First Presidential Debate: ETFs in Focus).

However, volatility would continue to shake

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UFP Industries: Housing Market Strength Supports Earnings Upside (NASDAQ:UFPI)

September 30, 2020
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UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI) “Universal Forest Products” is a commercial distributor of lumber and treated wood products. The company’s main business includes retail, industrial, and construction markets each with leading specialized brands. While there were some concerns during the early stages of the pandemic regarding the operating outlook, surprising strength in the retail segment with consumers pursuing home improvement projects supported better than expected Q2 earnings. We see UFPI continuing to benefit from strong trends in the U.S. housing market driving operational and financial momentum for the remainder of the year. Beyond uncertainties regarding the strength of the economic recovery, we like UFPI given its overall strong fundamentals and see value in shares at the current level.

(Source: finviz.com)

UFPI Financials Recap

UFPI last reported its Q2 earnings on July 22nd with GAAP EPS of $1.08 which beat expectations by $0.48. Revenue of $1.24B billion was flat on a year

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Low-Risk REIT W. P. Carey Offers A 6.6% Yield And Substantial Upside Potential (NYSE:WPC)

September 29, 2020
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Article Thesis

W. P. Carey (WPC) is a REIT that operates in an attractive, low-risk niche of the industrial real estate sector. The company has generated solid growth in the past, and should be able to grow its funds from operations going forward as well. It offers reliable dividend growth and an attractive dividend yield of close to 7%, while shares also have upside potential of up to 50% over the next couple of years. The combination of these factors makes WPC worthy of a closer look.

Triple net REITs

Source: StockRover

Compared to its peers in the triple-net space, WPC has a below-average valuation (in terms of cash flow and EV/EBITDA), while also providing an above-average dividend yield. Last but not least, its valuation is on the lower end of the 5-year range, whereas many of its peers are trading above the historical valuation median.

WPC Is A Strong Triple-Net REIT In

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Alkermes: Schizophrenia Drug Producer Taking Market Share, 5.5% 3-Month Upside (NASDAQ:ALKS)

September 28, 2020
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Alkermes plc LogoGraphic Source: Alkermes plc

Introduction: What is Alkermes plc?

Alkermes plc (ALKS) is a global biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing products related to schizophrenia, Bipolar I Disorder, Opioid/Alcohol Dependence, and recently Oncology. They are focused on unmet medical needs in major therapeutic areas and retain a diversified portfolio of approved revenue-producing therapeutics and a promising pipeline.

Since its founding in 1987, Alkermes has since grown to over 2,235 employees with revenues of $1.17B and a market cap of $2.68B. Alkermes is headquartered in Ireland with mix-purpose facilities (R&D and manufacturing) also in the USA.

Products: Alkermes has three marketed products, two licensed products, and a few other technology leases that all bring in sustainable revenue of varying levels. Their first product was ARISTADA (aripiprazole lauroxil), a 6w-2m dosing extended-release intramuscular injectable approved in the U.S. for the treatment of schizophrenia. ARISTADA rolled out an add-on, ARISTADA INITIO, which

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